The category “Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program” was added in 2008, with each of the nominees hosting the Emmys that year. It quickly became clear that the nominated talents were at their best hosting reality competitions. However, I mostly blame Heidi Klum for that debacle and luckily for the first time, she isn’t nominated this year (yes!). So, then, who is nominated?

Since 2008 Jeff Probst has managed to snag the award three years in a row because apparently a sharks tooth necklace (and rolled up khaki sleeves) never gets old. He’s obviously the one to beat and with Survivor coming up on its 23rd season, clearly there’s something about the way he extinguishes a tiki torch that the Academy and fans can’t resist. To use your own words Probst, “the tribe has spoken” and its time for you to let someone else win, although you probably won’t.

However, one nominee that has the potential to upset Probst is New Zealand TV personality and host of The Amazing Race, Phil Keoghan. He’s basically “Jeff Probst light” and according to his Wikipedia picture, he seems to share the same love for medallions. He isn’t as directly involved in the show as Probst is with Survivor, but Amazing Race is a fan favorite that holds some serious Emmy clout, winning seven awards for “Outstanding Reality Competition Program.” Top Chef broke its seven-year streak in 2010.

Cat Deeley is clearly replacing Heidi Klum’s spot this year and rightfully so. This So You Think You Can Dance host is equipped with a British accent and does more than make sexy faces for the camera while reading from a teleprompter. SYTYCD is live, which means she actually has to be able to think, react, and smooth over plenty of awkward moments from wackadoo judge Mary Murphy and the scary, extremely wealthy, Nigel Lythgoe. Does Cat stand a chance? No not at all, but it’s nice to have a woman with personality nominated.

This is the fourth nomination for Tom Bergeron in this category. Anyone who watches Dancing With the Stars knows he does most of the heavy lifting, while Brooke Burke shows off how good she looks after birthing four children. DWTS is live and filled with ballroom mishaps, beyond-awkward performances, and a sometimes-unruly judging panel that needs to be reeled in – okay just Bruno. Bergeron supplies plenty of spontaneous quips and can go beyond the obviously scripted teleprompter copy. Is this Bergeron’s year? Probably not, but he could always polish his Daytime Emmy from Hollywood Squares.

And let’s not forget about Ryan Seacrest and his ability to say, “This… is American Idol.” I don’t know about you, but it gives me chills every time. In all seriousness, Ry Ry has only managed to get better each season. Imagine if America was left with Brian Dunkleman (season one’s co-host casualty) instead? Side note: It must have been really fun for some high-powered executive to yell, “Someone fire Dunkleman!” If you want to realize how good Seacrest is at his job, watch Carson Daly host The Voice, where producers constantly need to check his pulse. Hosting a singing competition requires energy and although sometimes Seacrest gives a little too much, it’s something. He always manages to keep the show interesting, whether it’s creating an awkward moment or reacting to one.

Most likely Probst has already ordered a new glass display case and will be taking home the Emmy for the fourth year in a row, however I do think Phil Keoghan has a chance to upset. Who should take home the trophy? Seacrest. I say that because after ten seasons of live TV, he’s proven himself to be more irreplaceable than the judges.

Road to the Emmys Series

August 24: Miniseries/TV Movie Acting Roundup – Dantzler Smith

August 25: Outstanding Miniseries or TV Movie – Dantzler Smith

August 26: Outstanding Reality Competition Host – Erica Scandariato

August 29: Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series – Phil Wallace

August 30: Outstanding Reality Program – Erica Scandariato

August 31: Outstanding Reality Competition Program – Savanna New

September 1: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy – Dave Morris

September 2: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy – Kendra Beltran

September 6: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama – Angela Stern

September 7: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama – Adam Spunberg

September 8: Outstanding Actress in a Comedy Series – Megan Lane

September 9: Outstanding Actor in a Comedy Series – Megan Lane

September 12: Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series – Kit Bowen

September 13: Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series – Andrew Payne

September 14: Outstanding Comedy Series – Rebecca Rose

September 15: Outstanding Drama Series – Andrew Payne

September 18: 63rd Annual Prime Time Emmy Awards