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Which of these ladies will take home the award?

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath in GirlsIt will be interesting to see if the Girls buzz has lasted and can carry the series to a slew of Emmy wins (it’s nominated for five awards, including this one and Best Comedy). Dunham has a good shot, though voters might see the show in general as too divisive and give her the writing award instead. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if she won here.
Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn in Mike & MollyI love this lady, and she is the defending champion, but I seriously doubt anyone is really watching this show, including Emmy voters. It’s nice to see her nominated, but there’s no way she’ll win.
Zooey Deschanel as Jess Day in New GirlSeems like the buzz here has definitely faded. Zooey’s big time in the spotlight came and went and though she’s very funny on what I’ve seen of this show, I’m not sure it’s Emmy worthy and don’t see her chances of winning as very good. If there’s going to be a surprise win in this category, it will be for Julia Louis-Dreyfus (see below).
Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton in Nurse JackieFalco (who has won in the past) is almost as unlikely to win as Melissa McCarthy. There just doesn’t seem to be anyone talking about this show.
Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope in Parks and RecreationListen. I paused Obama’s DNC speech to watch a Parks blooper reel, so my opinions in this category are 100% biased. This show is just perfect in every single way and it starts with Poehler. She hasn’t won this award yet, though she was nominated in 2010 and 2011. This year, it should be her turn. This season found Knope both on the campaign trail and managing her relationship with Ben (Adam Scott). Poehler’s ability to make me feel a million different emotions at once, without over taking this character over the top (which would be easy), deserves recognition. Besides, what a perfect post-divorce pick me up!
Tina Fey as Liz Lemon in 30 RockThis paragraph could be a nearly word for word reproduction of the paragraph I wrote about Alec Baldwin’s 30 Rock nomination. This just isn’t the critical darling show it once was and she has already won this very award. Tina’s great but others here are more deserving and seem more likely to take home the trophy.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer in VeepThis is a truly hilarious show and JLD is fantastic. It would be a well-deserved win if she got it, though I don’t see that happening, despite the Emmy love she’s seen in the past (both for Seinfeld and The New Adventures of Old Christine. This should be a race between Dunham and Poehler, but if voters decided to go with a surprise Julia win, I wouldn’t complain.