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Like the last two years, this category comes down to the men of Modern Family vs. the other two guys. Since its debut, Modern Family has taken the award and stands a very good chance for a third year in a row. But with two new first time nominees in this category, we could see a surprise.

Ty Burell as Phil Dunphy

Modern Family

Episode: Lifetime Supply

What’s going for him- Coming off after last year’s win, he continues to prove to be the fan favorite. He is very likable with his strong physical humor and sweet charm. He also seems to have some of the strongest and most consistent material on the show.

Against him- He won last year which is always a double edged sword (especially when the rest of your cast is competing against you). So far, Emmy voters have spread the wealth among the Modern Family cast pretty well. So if the voters are going to award Modern Family again, they may want to award it to one of the other two Emmy-less gentlemen on the show.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett

Modern Family

Episode: Leap Day

What’s going for him- He plays the more neurotic, straight man compared to his TV partner Cam (Eric Stonestreet). This type plays well with Emmy voters- just look at multiple winner David Hyde Pierce in Frasier. Plus he gets emotional points for his baby wanting story arc.

What’s against him- His performance is not as showy as the other nominees. While he still proves to be a very vital part of the show, he can get lost in shuffle.

Max Greenfield as Schmidt

New Girl

Episode: Control

What’s going for him- New Girl scored big with critics and ratings. If the Emmy voters are feeling Modern Family fatigue, Greenfield may be the fresh face to give the award to. But Greenfield is not just a pretty face; he showed his comedic strengths in his submitted episode, proving that Neil Patrick Harris is not the only charming womanizer on TV.

Against him- While being the new guy can get you noticed, it may not be enough to get to the finish line. The Emmy voters may want to wait a year or two to see if the show still holds up. Plus Greenfield is no TV veteran when compared to the other nominees.

Bill Hader as Various Characters

Saturday Night Live

Episode: Host Katy Perry

What’s going for him- He’s the first male SNL cast member to be nominated in this category. With his Stefan character, he is proving to be not only a fan favorite but a one of SNL’s strongest recent players. Plus he can usually make any bad sketch better.

Against him- Being completely honest, his nomination was a surprise with many pundits predicting Nick Offerman (Parks and Rec) to take the last slot. While being a strong player on SNL, unlike Kristen Wiig, he is not exiting the show so the voters may not feel rushed to award him just yet.

Ed O’ Neill as Jay Pritchett

Modern Family

Episode: Baby on Board

What’s going for him- He is a huge veteran TV star going back to his days on Married with Children. It’s a surprise the guy doesn’t already have an Emmy on his mantle. His performance as the grumpy patriarch of the Pritchett family proves he can be blunt as he is surprisingly sweet.

Against him- While getting some great lines and emotional moments, his performance is not as buffoonish or wacky as co-star Ty Burrell. He plays the ultimate straight man of the bunch which can hurt in a category under comedy.

Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker

Modern Family

Episode: Treehouse

What’s going for him- He was the first member of the cast to pick up an Emmy. He has been nominated every year, plus he is just wacky and heartfelt enough to stay in voters’ minds. He is the loveable clown that voters can’t resist.

Against him- While he chose a great episode submission, the time doesn’t feel right for him to pick up a second Emmy. While it feels like a duo effort with him and Jesse Tyler Ferguson, the voters may want to give it to his better half.

Percentage of winning

Ed O’Neill        30%

Ty Burell          25%

Max Greenfield           20%

Jesse Tyler Ferguson   10%

Eric Stonestreet          10%

Bill Hader                    5%

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